What a Promise Is Worth

My last post, “Political and Cultural Calcification,” was about the things that pushed Americans apart at home. This one is about something we are doing abroad. It is a departure, and it is not a calm one.

Poor Ukraine.

I will say up front what I say at the end: this is not an informational post. It is an expression of devastation, written over thirteen days in which the United States moved further from an ally than I thought I would see in my lifetime. I have tried to attach evidence to each of my claims so that the feeling is at least anchored to something real, and I have tried to read what Kyiv, Moscow, Berlin, Beijing, and Washington are each saying about the same events, because on this subject every side has reasons to shade the truth. But the feeling came first.

Glory to the heroes.

Thirteen days, in order

The timeline matters, so here it is. On October 9, after a phone call with Vladimir Putin, President Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel, more than 300,000 tons immediately and millions more to follow, to bring down fuel prices that have surged during the war with Iran.[1] The Treasury issued a general license the same day authorizing transactions in Russian diesel through April 7, 2027, and on October 10 the Russian government partially lifted its own diesel export ban to carry out the agreement.[2] The next day Trump said Ukraine should “get a new leader who can make a deal,” and Zelenskyy replied that Russia had “expressed its thanks” for the deal by dropping five glide bombs on residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia.[3]

Then came the quieter pressure. Zelenskyy told NPR on October 13 that the administration had warned Kyiv it could cut off intelligence sharing unless Ukraine stopped its long-range strikes on Russian refineries.[4] A day later, speed caps were imposed on Starlink terminals used by the Ukrainian military without warning, which Ukraine says hampers its ability to intercept Russian jet-powered drones. Trump said neither he nor Elon Musk had made that decision, and Rubio said the slowdown “wasn’t deliberate” and that “my understanding is it’s been restored.”[5]

On Friday night, October 16, Trump signed an executive order waiving the tariff provisions and roughly a dozen sanctions sections of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, certifying to Congress that the waiver was “in the national interests of the United States.”[6] This was a law he had signed a month earlier, after the Senate passed it 86 to 11, and its provisions were due to take effect that Sunday.[7] Zelenskyy called the waiver “wrong” and said it “only helps the Russians.”[8] On Saturday Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the president would take “up to 60 days” to analyze the economic effects of the measures, and offered the administration’s best argument for the diesel deal: “That diesel is going to be sold one way or the other. The only difference is how much of it the United States was going to get.”[9] On Sunday, Trump wrote that he did not “want to do anything that will drive, foolishly, Russia away from the bargaining table,” described himself as making “great progress” toward peace, and hinted at a hostage negotiation he did not describe.[10] *The Economist* summarized the administration’s defense as the argument that “further economic pressure could derail peace talks with Ukraine,” and noted that Democrats and Republicans alike warned the concessions could prolong the war.[11]

And then Monday. Asked about Ukraine, the president said that “Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven’t been doing much,” and that “it’s time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.”[12] He said he would be open to meeting Putin and Xi Jinping in China next month, with Ukraine on the agenda alongside “nuclear weapons and denuclearization,” and the Kremlin confirmed such a meeting had been “mentioned.”[13] Zelenskyy, in an interview published Sunday, said what I think many people were already thinking: “I believe steps have been taken to convince Ukraine to capitulate.” He added that he did not want to believe it. “But that’s how it looks.”[14]

And then Tuesday. Overnight Russia sent another 165 attack drones, 105 of them jet-powered, and by midday officials counted at least nine dead: four in the Kyiv region, three on the Kyiv–Odesa highway, two at warehouses outside Dnipro.[15] The energy strikes have now spread from the east and center to western regions that had not been targeted before, and DTEK reported three of its facilities hit around Odesa with 32,700 families still without power.[16] Zelenskyy, meanwhile, flew to Oslo to meet Steve Witkoff, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre, and Finland’s Alexander Stubb, with Jared Kushner joining by video. “We are maintaining all contacts that can help bring peace,” he wrote on arrival.[17] He also described a “substantive” call with Rubio about interceptors, early warning, and “the situation with Starlink/Starshield, which needs to be restored,” and said he was “grateful for his readiness to help and his clear position.”[18] In Strasbourg, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said what no senior European official had quite said aloud: “American negotiators have been trying to push Ukraine into surrender for already almost two years, one and a half years now.”[19] And in Moscow, the Kremlin said it wanted nuclear disarmament to be the main focus of the proposed Shenzhen meeting, while Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, warned that inviting Putin “would feed his appetite for self-aggrandizement and give him a stature he does not deserve. He is not a global leader; he is a war criminal.”[20]

Washington spent Tuesday denying and pressing at the same time. Traveling in India, Rubio called the charge that Ukrainians were dying for want of American warnings “scandalous,” “outrageous,” and “simply not true,” and said that “there’s nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine,” though he allowed that a batch of interceptors bought for Ukraine under the NATO-coordinated PURL program might not have been delivered, and added that “every country in the world would like interceptors.”[21] The *Washington Post* had reported the night before that the administration had not approved the transfer of Patriot interceptors that partner countries were trying to send, and Pete Hegseth, asked about it, said “we haven’t changed our posture in any way toward Ukrainians,” then added: “But certainly with things like interceptors, we wanna make sure our guys have the most possible as well.”[22] In the Oval Office that afternoon the president said what he has been saying all week, only more plainly. “Ukraine has to want to settle this war,” he said. “Russia is a big machine. They just keep grinding forward, and that’s what they’ve done. They’ve taken a very large piece of land.” And: “We’ve given a lot to Ukraine. We’ve gotten absolutely nothing back except grief, death, tremendous monetary loss.” If no deal came, “I think it’s going to be a very bad thing.”[23] In Moscow, Sergei Lavrov told a room of newly hired diplomats that Russia would hear the American envoys out: “If they propose something that benefits us economically and financially then why not? But it should not involve any political concessions on our part.”[24]

The Oslo evening turned out better than the Oslo morning, and I want to record that honestly, because it is the first good day in this account. After the meetings, Zelenskyy said he was “thankful that intelligence works now”: “Speaking about early warning, which is very important for our people, our children, adults, civilians, because we can hear when ballistic is coming, so we are thankful to American side, now it works.”[25] He said Ukraine had put options on the table, including a leaders’ meeting: “One of the important ideas is to move to a potential trilateral meeting of the leaders to address the issues that only the leaders can do.” On the energy truce he was blunt: “We are ready not to hit sensitive parts of Russia’s energy sector if Russia stops hitting ours. Putin said no. But we’re working to find a solution.”[26] An American official told NBC the meetings were “very productive and constructive,” that Ukraine “brought forward new ideas and proposals,” and that “there is now strong alignment at the working level among the United States, Ukraine and Europe.”[27] Stubb called it “a good day for peace” and said “genuine progress” had been made, while warning that patience would be needed; Støre said Witkoff would fly to St. Petersburg the next morning to carry proposals “worked on by European and American colleagues” to the Russian leadership and “possibly pave the way for a meeting at leaders’ level.”[28]

And then this morning. Overnight Russia launched Iskander-K cruise missiles and 186 drones, 88 of them jet-powered; the air force said it downed or jammed 150 and recorded hits at 27 locations.[29] In Kyiv, a drone struck the twentieth floor of a 24-story apartment building in the Sviatoshynskyi district shortly after the 5:20 a.m. alert, and the city’s military administration counted three dead, twelve wounded, and ten residential buildings damaged.[30] Outside Kharkiv, in the village of Korotych, drones killed an 81-year-old woman and an 83-year-old man and left eleven people, including a two-month-old boy, in acute stress; in Kremenchuk another drone set fire to a university building where students had been in class that day.[31] The prime minister, Serhii Koretskyi, said the strikes hit energy facilities in the Kyiv, Volyn, Odesa, and Mykolaiv regions, and across the country the past day’s toll stood at nine dead and 45 wounded.[32]

A few hours later, Witkoff sat down with Putin at the Constantine Palace outside St. Petersburg, with Kirill Dmitriev and Yuri Ushakov across the table and Kushner on a screen. Before the cameras he said “there is some degree of momentum,” thanked Putin for lifting Russia’s diesel export ban, which he said would help American farmers and truckers, and told him: “You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian. You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that.”[33] The occasion for that was real. Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old retired teacher from Michigan held for more than four years on what the State Department called fabricated charges of fighting as a mercenary for Ukraine; Trump wrote that there was “no ‘swap’ necessary,” and, according to CBS News, said the release would not have happened had the new sanctions taken effect last week. I am glad for the Hubbard family without reservation.[34] The talks ran about three hours. Afterward Ushakov said Putin had agreed “in principle” to resume trilateral negotiations with Washington and Kyiv after November 10, focused on “building a security system for Russia and Ukraine after the conflict ends.” He also said: “We had no contact with Zelensky. The things we discussed a while ago, we did so without him.”[35] Peskov, asked about an energy ceasefire the morning after Zelenskyy had offered one, said: “Russia needs peace, not a ceasefire.”[36] Rubio described the Oslo meeting as “positive,” with “nothing surprising,” and said Witkoff had gone to Russia “armed with those ideas.” Zelenskyy, on Fox News, said: “Right now, we have to freeze, and I think this is the real way to end this war.”[37]

I understand the domestic pressure. Diesel topped six dollars a gallon in September, and Moody’s estimates the Iran war has cost the average American household about two thousand dollars.[38] Rubio’s point that the diesel would be sold somewhere is not nothing. But Zelenskyy’s answer is also not nothing: every additional billion dollars of Russian export revenue buys drone components, missile production, and mercenary recruitment.[39] A concession offered to Putin, paid for in the currency of Ukrainian security, is not a neutral act. It is a choice.

Why the promise matters

A promise, not a guarantee

My first instinct was to call this the greatest betrayal of an ally in American history. I am not going to, because I cannot prove a superlative and because the people who defend this policy deserve a fair argument rather than a slogan. What I can say is this: I cannot think of a more consequential reversal of an American commitment to a partner in my lifetime, and I have a specific commitment in mind.

In December 1994, Ukraine gave up the nuclear arsenal it inherited from the Soviet Union. In exchange, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, in which they “reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine… to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.”[40] Those were assurances, not a treaty guarantee, and the lawyers were careful about the difference. Russia tore the document up in 2014. The question now is what the other two signatures are worth. It is hard not to notice that the country which actually denuclearized is the one being told to send “somebody else” to a table where the president wants to discuss denuclearization with the two nuclear powers who did not.[41]

What the bonds are for

Here is a blunt question: if the United States will not defend its democratic allies, what good are the dollar bonds so many countries hold? It sounds like a rhetorical flourish. It turns out to be a research finding.

Foreign holders owned about $9.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities at the end of August 2026, more than a third of it in official hands.[42] Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chiţu asked whether the currency composition of those reserves is driven by economics alone or also by security relationships. Their answer, published in *Economic Policy*, is that countries dependent on the United States for their security hold a dollar share of reserves on the order of 35 percentage points higher than countries that are not, and that if other nations believe the United States is disengaging from its alliances, long-term U.S. interest rates could rise by roughly 80 basis points.[43] The protection and the purchases are, in other words, part of the same arrangement. Nobody signs a form that says so. The data say so instead. China, for what it is worth, is reading the week the same way: analysts in Beijing described the diesel deal as “transactional” and said China would wait to see whether Trump abruptly changes course again before drawing conclusions.[44]

What walking away costs

Sunday night in Kyiv

I could start this part with statistics, and I will get to them. But I want to start with one night. Beginning just before 11 p.m. on Sunday and continuing in waves until morning, Russia fired 16 ballistic missiles and roughly 270 drones at Kyiv and the surrounding region.[45] A 21-year-old woman was killed, eight people were injured, and the above-ground Chernihivska metro station on the left bank was damaged along with its track and cabling.[46] Across the country, strikes hit 28 substations and other energy facilities and left at least 550,000 households without power; one energy worker was injured in Vinnytsia.[47] Near Kharkiv, a drone strike on a park killed six people, including two children, in what Zelenskyy called “an act of absolute barbarity.”[48]

Here is the part that concerns my own country. Ukraine says it received no early warning from its partners before the first salvo. “Once again, there was no early warning,” Zelenskyy said; the air force spokesman confirmed that no information came before the 11 p.m. strike, though warnings did arrive before the next wave around 3 a.m.[49] Only a day earlier, on NBC’s *Meet the Press*, Zelenskyy had said intelligence sharing had been interrupted and then “de-blocked” by the American side: “We are very thankful for this. Now it works.”[50] By Monday he was questioning that again.[51] Rubio attributed the previous week’s missing warnings to “a software problem involving their early warning system” and said he could not speak to what happened Sunday night.[52] Serhii Beskrestnov, a Zelenskyy adviser who works on electronic warfare, told the BBC that people have already died because warnings arrived too late: “Sometimes we receive this information before the attack, another time we [do] not. And for example, last night we received it, but… one minute before the attack.” He said the simultaneous intelligence and Starlink problems were “probably” deliberate pressure to negotiate.[53]

On Monday, Zelenskyy took this directly to a bipartisan group of senators. He told them Ukraine had received no early warning on three occasions in the past week, that “some political decision has been made to slow down support for us,” and that “we have almost no Patriot interceptors left from the U.S. partners.” He proposed a 30-day halt to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for Patriot interceptors during that period.[54] Publicly, he went further, accusing the Pentagon of sitting on interceptors that European allies have already paid for: “The missiles are ready, and they could already be in Ukraine. But unfortunately, there is still no approval.” A U.S. official called the Patriot claims “not true.”[55] Thom Tillis said Congress “remains committed to standing with Ukraine and our European allies”; Richard Blumenthal called bipartisan support “clear and unequivocal” and said it would be expressed “in upcoming action.”[56] The president and his officials have denied for days that any restrictions exist, and Trump said Monday that intelligence sharing continues and that he would consider letting Ukrainians remain in the United States under temporary protected status until the war ends.[57] I cannot resolve those contradictory accounts from Boston. I can say that the people who were under the missiles are the ones saying the warnings did not come. By Tuesday night, after his call with Rubio and the Oslo meetings, Zelenskyy said the early warnings were working again, and he thanked the American side for it.[58] I am glad. I also notice that a thing the administration says was never restricted is now described as restored, and that it took a week of public pleading.

The war of attrition is already here

The fear is easy to state: if the United States walks away, Putin will wage a war of attrition against Ukrainian civilians. I want to be careful with the word “will,” because the numbers are not projections.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission verified at least 328 civilians killed and 2,105 injured in September 2026, the deadliest September since the full-scale invasion and 85 percent higher than September 2025.[59] July was worse: 437 killed and 2,610 injured, the most of any month since March 2022.[60] In the first six months of this year alone, 1,396 civilians died and 7,978 were injured.[61] The monitors tie the rise directly to resumed systematic attacks on energy infrastructure. One strike on October 13 and 14 hit the three main power stations in Kyiv and temporarily left 600,000 people without electricity, and the head of the mission warned that “systematically attacking electricity and heating infrastructure as winter approaches is bound to inflict significant suffering on the civilian population.”[62]

There is supposed to be an energy ceasefire. Trump announced one after his call with Putin. Neither Kyiv nor Moscow confirmed it, and Zelenskyy counted 76 deliberate Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy, oil, and gas sectors in the week that followed.[63] Ukraine’s first deputy energy minister put the week’s total at 87 targeted attacks and 224 damage incidents across the sector.[64] Ukraine, for its part, resumed its own strikes on Russian refineries and on the night of October 17 to 18 carried out what the Institute for the Study of War called its largest strike on St. Petersburg’s energy, digital, and logistics infrastructure since 2022, hitting an oil terminal and killing one person.[65] I note that because it is true, and because a ceasefire that only one side is asked to observe is not a ceasefire. That is what a war of attrition looks like in October. The intelligence gaps, sanctions waivers, and slowed deliveries are happening as the heating season begins.

The arsenal we are supposed to have

The usual rejoinder is that America needs to husband its strength for its own fights. I would take that argument more seriously if the strength were in better shape.

The Pentagon’s own inspector general reported that the Army set a goal of producing 100,000 155 mm artillery rounds a month by October 2025 and was producing about 36,000 a month as of March 2026, held back by manufacturing problems.[66] The same watchdog confirmed that the Iran war has led to munitions “shortfalls” and a resupply bottleneck, contradicting the president’s repeated statements that there are no shortages.[67] The Congressional Budget Office estimated in September that the war has cost about $38 billion and has consumed between one-half and two-thirds of the U.S. inventory of certain missile-defense interceptors, including Patriot, THAAD, SM-3, and SM-6, with “significant quantities” expended defending Israel before the current operation began; rebuilding those stocks could take at least five years.[68] Those are the same Patriot interceptors that, as Zelenskyy told senators on Monday, Ukraine has “almost no” remaining supply of from its American partners.[69] On Monday night the *Washington Post* reported that the administration had not approved transfers of Patriot interceptors from partner countries, and the defense secretary’s explanation was that “we wanna make sure our guys have the most possible as well.”[70] That is an honest explanation. It is also an admission that the shortage is real.

On the Navy, the words that come to mind are “crumbling” and “decrepit.” The auditors are more measured, and more damning. The Government Accountability Office found that the Navy has lost more than 15,000 operational days on its attack submarines over the past decade to maintenance delays and idle time, at a cost of roughly $4.2 billion for boats that provided no capability while they waited for shipyard space.[71] CBO told Congress in April that destroyers and submarines that took five to six years to build in the 2000s now take nine to ten, that Virginia-class attack submarines are running two to three years late, and that the administration did not release a 2026 shipbuilding plan at all.[72] You can argue about what America should do with its military. It is harder to argue that we are declining to help Ukraine from a position of surplus.

Europe, mostly alone

If the United States steps back, Europe carries the war. In large part it already does. The Kiel Institute found that U.S. aid to Ukraine fell by 99 percent in 2025, to a single military package worth about €0.4 billion, with no new humanitarian or financial allocations at all.[73] Europe is now the largest donor of military aid, and in the first half of 2026 European donors bought at least €3 billion of weapons from American companies to send on.[74] Washington has paused or slowed its own assistance under Trump while allowing those purchases, and the president has said he will ask Europe to repay the aid the previous administration provided.[75] EU member states’ defense budgets have risen from €218 billion in 2021 to an expected €381 billion in 2025.[76] This is money that is not going to schools, hospitals, or housing, in countries whose politics are already strained by exactly those questions.

Europe’s leaders have said the right things this week, and I want to give them credit for it. Friedrich Merz said that for Germany and Europe a diesel deal like Trump’s was “out of the question,” and his foreign minister called the EU’s new sanctions package an “unprecedented sanctions blow” meant to continue “until Putin is ready to negotiate seriously.”[77] At the EU summit on October 16, António Costa said “this is no time to withdraw support to Ukraine” and “no time to relieve Russia’s sanctions,” and Ursula von der Leyen said “we will not lift any sanctions unless Russia stops this war.” Zelenskyy, standing beside them, asked for at least €70 billion more next year against a war he said will cost €155 billion.[78] German public broadcasting’s Washington correspondent described the week plainly as a change of sides, and noted reporting that the administration has spent a year exploring joint business with the Kremlin, including the sale of Russian oil assets that can only be sold if Ukraine does not destroy them.[79] That is an allegation, not a finding, and I flag it as such. But the German press is not treating it as fringe.

And there are the people. As of August 31, 2026, 4.43 million Ukrainians held temporary protection status in the European Union. Germany alone hosts 1,294,555 of them, 29 percent of the total.[80] A longer war, with a worse winter, means more.

What I saw in Germany

This is the part that is hardest to write honestly, so I want to try.

During my time in Germany, I saw prejudice against Ukrainians firsthand. It was not usually loud. Germans want to help, and most of the people I knew had helped. But underneath it was a feeling I recognized from the debates over Muslim immigration a decade earlier: a sense among many ethnic Germans that their own needs were being asked to wait. The polling bears this out. A late-2025 poll commissioned by *Bild* found that 66 percent of Germans oppose continuing Bürgergeld payments to Ukrainian refugees, with only 17 percent in favor.[81] In November 2025, the governing coalition moved to shift Ukrainians who arrived after April 1, 2025 off the citizen’s allowance and onto the lower asylum-seeker benefit of €441 a month.[82]

I do not think the resentment is baseless, and I do not think it is fair, either. The IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey found that among working-age Ukrainian refugees in Germany who are not yet employed, 78 percent say they definitely or probably want to work, and employment had climbed to 37.4 percent despite language barriers, childcare gaps, and credential recognition.[83] The gap between what people assume and what the survey finds is the gap where xenophobia grows.

And it is growing. On September 6, the AfD took 43.8 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than double the Christian Democrats.[84] The research on why is more interesting than either side admits. An RWI Essen study of the 2014 to 2017 refugee inflow found that in urban West Germany, more refugees in a neighborhood actually lowered the far-right vote, consistent with the idea that contact reduces fear, while there was no robust relationship at all in East Germany or rural West Germany.[85] The fear, in other words, is usually bigger than the neighbor. That is cold comfort when the fear is what votes.

The same week from three directions

What Kyiv’s press is saying

I have tried this week to read Ukrainian outlets directly rather than through Western summaries. Suspilne, the public broadcaster, led its Monday morning briefing with the dead 21-year-old in Kyiv and Zelenskyy’s charge that there are “attempts to push Ukraine toward capitulation.”[86] TSN framed the sanctions waiver as a scandal in Washington, leading with the lawmakers of both parties who turned on the president.[87] Ukrinform and Suspilne both carried Zelenskyy’s warning on Friday that the diesel deal was “only the first step” and that the lifting of sanctions “will continue.”[88] To the *Financial Times* he was blunter than he usually allows himself to be: “Putin is an enemy for us. And he’s a real evil of today, absolutely. How Trump can be friend with him? I think that it’s a mistake.” On the energy truce: “Three days we didn’t attack any energy, diesel, and etc systems of Russia. And three days, they attack us.”[89] These are the statements of a wartime president speaking to his own public and to donors, and they should be read that way. But they are consistent with what the UN monitors and the Kyiv city administration are independently reporting.

What Moscow’s press is saying

Russian state media are an instrument of the Russian state, and I read them for what they reveal about how the Kremlin is scoring the week, not for facts I cannot check. On that reading, the week was a triumph. Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s investment envoy, called the sanctions waiver a “truly historic moment” and said the law, had it been applied, “would completely nullify economic cooperation between Moscow and Washington.”[90] Sergei Lavrov told TASS that the diesel deal “is a matter for Moscow and Washington” and that Zelenskyy’s objections were “self-promotion and yet another farce.”[91] Dmitry Peskov told RIA Novosti that Trump’s call for a new Ukrainian president reflected Zelenskyy’s lack of “political will” to make “difficult decisions,” and the Kremlin later said it “fully” agreed with Trump’s criticism.[92] RT, in an article it labels as AI-generated, quoted Lavrov calling Zelenskyy’s conduct “a direct and blatant challenge to President Trump” and presented the diesel deal, the Starlink limits, and the intelligence pressure together as Washington “redrawing its Ukraine playbook.”[93]

Two things in the Russian coverage are useful even so. First, the commercial details match the American account: Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said Russian diesel will reach U.S. buyers 15 to 20 days after contracts are signed, that Russia produces roughly twice the diesel it consumes, and that exports could reach 3.5 million tons a month by year end.[94] Where Moscow and Washington agree on a number, the number is probably right. Second, the tone itself is evidence. When the Kremlin’s own messengers describe an American decision as historic, and when they adopt the American president’s language about the Ukrainian president almost word for word, that tells you who believes they won the week.

What the ground is saying

The rhetoric from Washington this week described a Ukraine that has lost and should accept it. The battlefield reporting is more complicated, and I want to be careful with it, because every number here comes from a belligerent. Al Jazeera reported on October 16 that Ukraine’s Third Army Corps had completed the fourth phase of a counteroffensive near Lyman, reclaiming about 275 square kilometers and 16 settlements since August, and that a separate push had blunted a Russian attempt on Dobropillia; ISW’s count of Russian attacks per day near Sloviansk fell from 14 in August to three so far in October.[95] ISW also recorded Ukrainian advances in northern Sumy Oblast over the weekend.[96] At the same time, Zelenskyy acknowledged that Russian forces outnumber Ukraine’s “by six to eight times in parts of the front,” and Russia’s defense ministry claimed to have shot down 1,015 Ukrainian drones in a single night, a figure no one outside Russia can verify, just as Ukraine’s claim to have downed more than 240 of 270 drones over Kyiv is Ukraine’s alone.[97] What I take from all of it is narrower than either side’s story: Ukraine is not collapsing, Russia is not winning quickly, and the thing most likely to change that balance is not on the front line. It is in Washington.

Where this leaves me

In my last post I wrote that the road ahead is less about choosing a side and more about fixing the things that pushed us apart. I still believe that. But I have come to think that one of the things that pushed us apart is the sense that American promises are negotiable, that the people who kept their end of a bargain can be told, decades later, that the bargain was never really binding. Ukraine kept its end in 1994. It is keeping it now, at a cost I cannot fully imagine from Boston.

The administration has given itself sixty days to decide what to do about the sanctions it waived.[98] Congress is in recess until after the midterms, and the Republicans who objected most loudly, Tillis, Cruz, McCaul, Cornyn, Bacon, and the late senator’s own sister, have so far objected in words.[99] The criticism is not confined to the usual places: writing in *The Atlantic*, Tom Nichols noted that the conservative legal commentator Andrew McCarthy accused the president of giving Putin “aid and comfort” and called for immediate congressional hearings.[100] John Herbst, a former ambassador to Ukraine, put it this way on Monday: “At this moment in time, things look blacker than they ever had regarding this administration’s policy towards Russia and Ukraine,” but “he can wake up tomorrow morning, decide he’s done enough on this, and he might start to lean back in the other direction.”[101] I hope he is right about the second part. As I finish this, there is a date on a calendar: trilateral talks, “in principle,” after November 10, about a security system for a war that is still being fought every night.[102] Zelenskyy asked for a leaders’ meeting and offered an energy truce; the Kremlin’s answer, on the record, was that it had no contact with him and that Russia needs “peace, not a ceasefire.”[103] An American envoy called Putin a humanitarian on the same morning a Russian drone burned the twentieth floor of an apartment building in Kyiv. I am not going to pretend this post changes anything. It is not an informational post. It is simply an expression of my devastation, and of a stubborn hope that the country I live in remembers what its word was supposed to be worth.

Glory to the heroes.

Notes

[1] Michelle L. Price and Collin Binkley, “Trump Strikes Deal with Putin to Get Diesel in Sharp Reversal of US Policy Weeks before Midterms,” AP News, October 9, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/trump-russia-diesel-midterms-12baccc7aade559bf329079b0548c9da.

[2] Egor Alimov, “Правительство России частично сняло запрет на экспорт дизельного топлива” [Russian Government Partially Lifts Ban on Diesel Exports], RBC, October 10, 2026, https://www.rbc.ru/economics/10/10/2026/6aca828adcbc89546c0223eb.

[3] Matthew Daly, Susie Blann, and Elise Morton, “Trump Says Ukraine Should Get a New President as He Blames Zelenskyy for US Diesel Prices,” AP News, October 10, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-trump-putin-diesel-228ccf74b2848c1ff0ac23f038b37512.

[4] Joanna Kakissis, “The Trump Administration Warns Ukraine It Could Cut Off Intel, Zelenskyy Tells NPR,” NPR, October 13, 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/10/13/nx-s1-6000051/ukraine-zelenskyy-npr-interview-russia-war.

[5] “‘Planned Operation’ — Zelensky Confirms Ukraine’s Starlink Access Not Fully Restored,” *Kyiv Independent*, October 17, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/planned-operation-zelensky-confirms-ukraines-starlink-access-not-fully-restored/; Ellen Mitchell, “Zelensky Disputes US Resumed Intelligence Sharing with Ukraine,” *The Hill*, October 19, 2026, republished by Yahoo News, https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/zelensky-disputes-us-resumed-intelligence-190635551.html; Zoriana Katola, “Rubio Thinks Starlink Is Fixed. Kyiv Says It Still Cuts Out above 161 km/h,” *Euromaidan Press*, October 20, 2026, https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/10/20/rubio-thinks-starlink-is-fixed-kyiv-says-it-still-cuts-out-above-161-km-h/.

[6] Executive Office of the President, “Implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026,” executive order, October 16, 2026, https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/10/implementing-the-lindsey-o-graham-sanctioning-russia-and-iran-act-of-2026/.

[7] Associated Press, “Trump’s Decision to Waive Russian Sanctions Outrages Congress, but No Quick Counter Seen,” PBS NewsHour, October 17, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trumps-decision-to-waive-russian-sanctions-outrages-congress-but-no-quick-counter-seen.

[8] “Trump Doubles Down after Waiving New Russia Sanctions,” NBC News, October 18, 2026, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-suspends-new-russia-sanctions-deal-purchase-diesel-citing-nation-rcna603991.

[9] Reuters, “Rubio Says Trump to Take Up to 60 Days to Weigh Russia Sanctions,” October 17, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/rubio-says-trump-take-up-60-days-weigh-russia-sanctions-2026-10-18/.

[10] David E. Sanger, “Trump Defends Plans to Ease Russia Sanctions and Hints at a Hostage Deal,” *New York Times*, October 18, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/18/us/politics/trump-russia-sanctions-hostage-negotiations.html.

[11] “The US in Brief: Putin Fuel on the Fire,” *The Economist*, October 19, 2026, https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief/2026/10/19/3b6e0185-79a0-4673-8cf9-eb7ff9d6fb5c.

[12] Steve Holland and Jasper Ward, “Trump Says Zelenskiy Should Get Somebody Else to Negotiate to End War,” Reuters, October 19, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-zelenskiy-should-get-somebody-else-negotiate-end-war-2026-10-19/; “Trump Open to Meeting Putin and Xi Without Zelensky,” *Kyiv Post*, October 19, 2026, https://www.kyivpost.com/post/87555.

[13] “Trump Open to Meeting Putin and Xi,” *Kyiv Post*.

[14] Constant Méheut, “Trump Is Pushing Ukraine to Surrender to Russia, Zelensky Says,” *New York Times*, October 19, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/world/europe/trump-zelensky-putin-ukraine-war.html.

[15] “Russia Attacks Ukraine with Nearly 200 Drones, 30 Strikes Reported,” RBC-Ukraine, October 20, 2026, https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-attacks-ukraine-with-nearly-200-drones-1792479614.html; Hanna Arhirova and Barry Hatton, “Russian Aerial Blitz Kills 9 in Ukraine as Zelenskyy Meets US and European Officials in Norway,” AP News, October 20, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-norway-trump-rubio-witkoff-140895c6c0a1682c46f4fe197e056996.

[16] Reuters, “Russia Expands Attacks on Energy Facilities to Western Ukraine,” October 20, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-expands-attacks-energy-facilities-western-ukraine-2026-10-20/.

[17] Arhirova and Hatton, “Russian Aerial Blitz Kills 9”; Martin Fornusek and Yevgeniya Doluda, “Zelensky Meets Trump Envoy Witkoff in Norway as US-Ukraine Ties Sour,” *Kyiv Independent*, October 20, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-trump-envoy-witkoff-in-norway-as-us-ukraine-ties-sour/.

[18] Agence France-Presse, “Zelensky, US Envoys to Hold Oslo Talks as Ukraine Claims US Missile Holdup,” October 20, 2026, https://www.afp.com/en/zelensky-us-envoys-hold-oslo-talks-ukraine-claims-us-missile-holdup; Katola, “Rubio Thinks Starlink Is Fixed.”

[19] “Kaja Kallas Accuses the US of Pushing Ukraine to ‘Surrender on Putin’s Terms,’” Euronews, October 20, 2026, https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/20/kaja-kallas-accuses-the-us-of-pushing-ukraine-to-surrender-on-putins-terms.

[20] Deutsche Presse-Agentur, “Kremlin Backs Possible Putin-Trump-Xi Summit Focused on Nuclear Arms,” October 20, 2026, republished by Yahoo News, https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/kremlin-backs-possible-putin-trump-114852753.html.

[21] Reuters, “Rubio Says Ukraine Interceptors May Not Have Been Delivered, but Not for Political Reasons,” October 20, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/rubio-says-ukraine-interceptors-may-not-have-been-delivered-not-political-2026-10-20/; Veronika Melkozerova, “Rubio Insists the US Isn’t Trying to Hurt Ukraine,” *Politico Europe*, October 20, 2026, https://www.politico.eu/article/marco-rubio-denies-us-withholding-ukraine-missile-warnings-air-defense/; Yuliya Talmazan, Abigail Williams, and Monica Alba, “Zelenskyy Meets with Trump Envoys as U.S. Blasts ‘Scandalous’ Accusations about Withdrawn Support,” NBC News, October 20, 2026 (updated October 21, 2026), https://www.nbcnews.com/world/ukraine/ukraine-us-support-rubio-scandalous-zelenskyy-meeting-trump-oslo-rcna604530.

[22] Michael Birnbaum, Francesca Ebel, and John Hudson, “Trump Administration Holds Up Patriot Missiles for Ukraine,” *Washington Post*, October 19, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/19/amid-deteriorating-relations-washington-holds-up-patriots-kyiv/; Artem Hetsko, “Pentagon Chief Prioritizes US Interceptor Stocks amid Reports of Delayed Missile Deliveries to Ukraine,” Hromadske, October 21, 2026, https://hromadske.ua/en/war/272891-pentagon-chief-prioritizes-us-interceptor-stocks-amid-reports-of-delayed-missile-deliveries-to-ukraine.

[23] Steve Holland and Trevor Hunnicutt, “Trump Says He Asked Putin to Release American Stephen Hubbard,” Reuters, October 20, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-says-ukraine-has-want-settle-war-2026-10-20/; Associated Press, “WATCH: Trump Says U.S. Has Gotten ‘Nothing’ from Ukraine Other Than ‘High Diesel,’ Urging Deal,” PBS NewsHour, October 20, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-trump-says-u-s-has-gotten-nothing-from-ukraine-other-than-high-diesel-urging-deal.

[24] “Russia Ready to Listen to US Proposals, Rules Out Political Concessions — Lavrov,” TASS, October 20, 2026, https://tass.com/politics/2204897.

[25] Jaroslav Lukiv, “Zelensky Says US Intelligence Sharing ‘Works Now’ after Talks with Trump Envoy in Oslo,” BBC News, October 20, 2026, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5ynkx3xy11o.

[26] Office of the President of Ukraine, “In Oslo, the President of Ukraine Held Meetings with the Prime Minister of Norway, the President of Finland, and the American Side,” October 20, 2026, https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/v-oslo-prezident-ukrayini-proviv-zustrichi-z-premyer-ministr-106981; Sasha Vakulina, “Zelenskyy Calls for Trilateral Talks with Putin and Trump,” Euronews, October 20, 2026, https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/20/trump-envoy-witkoff-to-meet-zelenskyy-in-oslo-before-planned-putin-talks-in-moscow.

[27] Talmazan, Williams, and Alba, “Zelenskyy Meets with Trump Envoys.”

[28] Lukiv, “Zelensky Says US Intelligence Sharing ‘Works Now’”; Jonas Gahr Støre, “The Prime Minister’s Introduction at the Press Conference with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Finnish President Alexander Stubb,” Office of the Prime Minister of Norway, October 20, 2026, https://www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new/the-prime-ministers-introduction-at-the-press-conference-with-ukraines-president-volodymyr-zelenskyy-and-the-finnish-president-alexander-stubb/id3179842; Nina Berglund, “Oslo Talks ‘Positive’ for Peace in Ukraine,” *News in English* (Norway), October 21, 2026, https://www.newsinenglish.no/2026/10/21/oslo-talks-positive-for-peace-in-ukraine/.

[29] Anastasia Prots, “Russia Attacks Ukraine with Iskander-K Missiles and 186 Drones,” *Ukrainska Pravda*, October 21, 2026, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/21/8059015/.

[30] Kateryna Hodunova, Christopher Occhicone, and Olena Zashko, “At Least 2 Killed, 2 Injured in Russian Drone Attack on Kyiv,” *Kyiv Independent*, October 21, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/at-least-2-killed-2-injured-in-russian-drone-attack-on-kyiv/; Associated Press, “Putin Agrees to Resume Trilateral Talks on Ukraine War with Kyiv and Washington, Kremlin Says,” AP News, October 21, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-witkoff-putin-trump-zelenskyy-talks-3f00c0c6fd10bab948c2c3f8502e0a91.

[31] Tamara Nowakowsky, “Russian Drones Kill 2 in Kharkiv Oblast, Strike University Building in Kremenchuk,” *Kyiv Independent*, October 21, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drones-kill-2-in-kharkiv-oblast-strike-university-building-in-kremenchuk/.

[32] Reuters, “Four Killed in Russian Strikes on Ukraine, Prime Minister Says,” October 21, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/four-killed-russian-strikes-ukraine-prime-minister-says-2026-10-21/; Asami Terajima, “Russian Attacks Kill at Least 9, Wound 45 across Ukraine, as Yet Another Deadly Drone Attack Strikes Kyiv,” *Kyiv Independent*, October 21, 2026, republished by Yahoo News, https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/russian-attacks-kill-least-9-085817269.html.

[33] Associated Press, “Putin Agrees to Resume Trilateral Talks”; David E. Sanger, “Calling Putin a ‘Humanitarian,’ Witkoff Thanks Him for Releasing an American,” *New York Times*, October 21, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/politics/russia-american-prisoner-release-stephen-hubbard-trump.html.

[34] Dasha Litvinova, “Russia Frees American Stephen Hubbard after over 4 Years in Prison, during a Visit from U.S. Envoy Witkoff,” Associated Press, October 21, 2026, via PBS NewsHour, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/russia-frees-american-stephen-hubbard-after-over-4-years-in-prison-during-a-visit-from-u-s-envoy-witkoff; Sanger, “Calling Putin a ‘Humanitarian’”; “Russia Says Ukraine Must Make ‘Necessary Decisions’ to End War as Witkoff Meets Putin,” CBS News, October 21, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-witkoff-putin-trump-zelenskyy/.

[35] Associated Press, “Putin Agrees to Resume Trilateral Talks”; “Moscow Did Not Contact Zelensky during Latest Round of Ukraine Talks — Kremlin Aide,” TASS, October 21, 2026, https://tass.com/politics/2205101.

[36] Oleksandra Bashchenko, “Russia Rejects Energy Ceasefire with Ukraine,” RBC-Ukraine, October 21, 2026, https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-rejects-energy-ceasefire-with-ukraine-1792573706.html.

[37] Talmazan, Williams, and Alba, “Zelenskyy Meets with Trump Envoys”; Associated Press, “Putin Agrees to Resume Trilateral Talks.”

[38] “Diesel Shortage to Persist into 2027 as Iran War Disrupts Supply, IEA Warns,” *The National*, October 14, 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/10/14/diesel-shortage-to-persist-into-2027-as-iran-war-disrupts-supply-iea-warns/; “The Iran War Is Costing American Households $2,000 Each, Moody’s Estimates,” CNN, October 13, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/13/economy/iran-war-oil-gas-prices-inflation.

[39] Daly, Blann, and Morton, “Trump Says Ukraine Should Get a New President.”

[40] “Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine’s Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” Budapest, December 5, 1994, paras. 1–2, reproduced in *Ukraine: The Budapest Memorandum of 1994*, Harvard Kennedy School Policy Memos, https://policymemos.hks.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum8096/files/policymemos/files/2-23-22_ukraine-the_budapest_memo.pdf.

[41] “Trump Open to Meeting Putin and Xi,” *Kyiv Post*.

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[44] Dewey Sim and Alyssa Chen, “Why China Is Likely to Be Cautious about Recent Trump-Putin Diesel Deal,” *South China Morning Post*, October 12, 2026, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3370620/why-china-likely-be-cautious-about-recent-trump-putin-diesel-deal.

[45] “Zelenskyy: Russia Struck Using 16 Ballistic Missiles Overnight,” *Ukrainska Pravda*, October 19, 2026, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/19/8058703/; Méheut, “Trump Is Pushing Ukraine to Surrender.”

[46] “Russia Attacks Kyiv with Ballistic Missiles, Damaging Metro Station and Injuring Civilians,” *Ukrainska Pravda*, October 19, 2026, https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/19/8058667/; “У Києві внаслідок обстрілу пошкоджена станція метро «Чернігівська»” [Chernihivska Metro Station Damaged in Kyiv Shelling], Suspilne, October 19, 2026, https://suspilne.media/kyiv/1430835-poskodzena-stancia-stolicnogo-metro-ak-kursuvatime-transport/.

[47] Tania Myronyshena, “Russia Strikes 28 Critical Energy Facilities across Ukraine in Latest Wave of Attacks, Zelensky Says,” *Kyiv Independent*, October 19, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-28-critical-energy-facilities-across-ukraine-in-latest-wave-of-attacks-zelensky-says/.

[48] Reuters, “Zelenskiy Says Ukraine Got No Warning as Russian Missiles Rain In,” October 19, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-strike-kills-woman-hits-kyiv-subway-station-mayor-says-2026-10-19/.

[49] Reuters, “Zelenskiy Says Ukraine Got No Warning”; Méheut, “Trump Is Pushing Ukraine to Surrender.”

[50] Iven Yorick Fenker and Agence France-Presse, “USA liefern der Ukraine wieder Geheimdienstinformationen” [US Again Supplying Ukraine with Intelligence], *Die Zeit*, October 18, 2026, https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-10/us-geheimdiensthilfe-ukraine-russland-geheimdienstinformationen; Mitchell, “Zelensky Disputes US Resumed Intelligence Sharing.”

[51] Mitchell, “Zelensky Disputes US Resumed Intelligence Sharing.”

[52] Méheut, “Trump Is Pushing Ukraine to Surrender.”

[53] Dan Johnson, “Ukrainians Dying Because US Restricting Intelligence Sharing, Zelensky Adviser Tells BBC,” BBC News, October 19, 2026, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmj47yx572z5o.

[54] Barak Ravid, “Zelensky Lobbies Senators to Press White House on Alleged Intel and Weapons Curbs,” Axios, October 19, 2026, https://www.axios.com/2026/10/19/zelensky-blumenthal-tillis-ukraine-russia-war-intelligence; “Zelenskyy, U.S. Lawmakers Discuss Starlink Restrictions,” NV (The New Voice of Ukraine), October 19, 2026, https://english.nv.ua/nation/zelenskyy-u-s-lawmakers-discuss-starlink-restrictions-50651527.html.

[55] France 24 with AFP, “Zelensky Accuses US of Delaying Missile Deliveries as Tensions Rise,” October 20, 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20261020-zelensky-accuses-us-of-delaying-missile-deliveries-as-tensions-rise; Katola, “Rubio Thinks Starlink Is Fixed.”

[56] Ravid, “Zelensky Lobbies Senators.”

[57] Holland and Ward, “Trump Says Zelenskiy Should Get Somebody Else.”

[58] Lukiv, “Zelensky Says US Intelligence Sharing ‘Works Now.’”

[59] UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — September 2026,” October 15, 2026, https://ukraine.ohchr.org/en/reports/protection-of-civilians.

[60] United Nations Ukraine, “UN Human Rights Monitors Report the Highest Monthly Number of Civilian Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine since March 2022,” August 13, 2026, https://ukraine.un.org/en/320943-un-human-rights-monitors-report-highest-monthly-number-civilian-deaths-and-injuries-ukraine.

[61] United Nations Ukraine, “Civilian Casualties Soar in Ukraine in the First Half of 2026 amid Escalating Attacks and Intensifying Hostilities,” July 2026, https://ukraine.un.org/en/319320-civilian-casualties-soar-ukraine-first-half-2026-amid-escalating-attacks-and-intensifying.

[62] United Nations Ukraine, “Civilian Casualties Remain at Record Levels amid Intensifying Attacks on Energy as Winter Approaches,” October 16, 2026, https://ukraine.un.org/en/324562-civilian-casualties-remain-record-levels-amid-intensifying-attacks-energy-winter-approaches.

[63] Dan Peleschuk, “Zelenskiy Says Russia Attacked Ukrainian Energy Sector 76 Times in Past Week,” Reuters, October 18, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-russia-attacked-ukrainian-energy-sector-76-times-past-week-2026-10-18/.

[64] Myronyshena, “Russia Strikes 28 Critical Energy Facilities.”

[65] Institute for the Study of War, “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2026,” October 18, 2026, https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-18-2026/; Tim Lister and Daria Tarasova-Markina, “Trump Slams Zelensky after Ukraine Defies US President with Major Attack on Russia,” CNN, October 18, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/18/europe/ukraine-russia-drone-attack-trump-intl.

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[69] Ravid, “Zelensky Lobbies Senators.”

[70] Birnbaum, Ebel, and Hudson, “Trump Administration Holds Up Patriot Missiles”; Hetsko, “Pentagon Chief Prioritizes US Interceptor Stocks.”

[71] U.S. Government Accountability Office, *Navy Readiness: Actions Needed to Address Costly Attack Submarine Maintenance Challenges*, GAO-26-109256 (Washington, DC: GAO, August 27, 2026), https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-26-109256.pdf.

[72] Eric J. Labs, *Testimony on Challenges Facing the Navy’s and Coast Guard’s Shipbuilding Programs and the Shipbuilding Industrial Base*, testimony before the Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces, House Committee on Armed Services, Congressional Budget Office, April 22, 2026, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62375.

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[76] European Parliamentary Research Service, *EU Member States’ Defence Budgets*, At a Glance, PE 785.659 (Brussels: European Parliament, 2026), https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2026/785659/EPRS_ATA(2026)785659_EN.pdf.

[77] Mark Hallam and Elizabeth Schumacher, “Germany News: Merz Says Trump’s Russia Diesel Deal ‘Out of Question’ for Europe,” Deutsche Welle, October 12, 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-merz-says-trump-s-russia-diesel-deal-out-of-question-for-europe/live-79636427.

[78] Dmytro Hubenko and Jon Shelton, “EU Summit: European Leaders Pledge Support for Ukraine’s Zelenskyy,” Deutsche Welle, October 16, 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/at-summit-eu-leaders-pledge-support-for-ukraines-zelenskyy/a-79678808.

[79] Carsten Kühntopp, “Russland-Sanktionen auf Eis: Wie sich Trump Putin weiter annähert” [Russia Sanctions on Ice: How Trump Keeps Moving Closer to Putin], tagesschau.de, October 17, 2026, https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amerika/usa-trump-russland-ukraine-100.html.

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[82] Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), “Germany Is Cutting Benefits for Refugees from Ukraine,” November 20, 2025, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-11-20/germany-cutting-benefits-refugees-ukraine.

[83] EUfactcheck, “False: ‘80% of Ukrainian Refugees Do Not Want to Work,’” August 2026, citing the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees, https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/false-80-of-ukrainian-refugees-do-not-want-to-work/.

[84] Deniz Torcu, “How Germany’s Far-Right AfD Is Courting the Voters It Promises to Deport,” *The Conversation*, September 14, 2026, https://theconversation.com/how-germanys-far-right-afd-is-courting-the-voters-it-promises-to-deport-291807.

[85] Melinda Fremerey, Lukas Hörnig, and Sandra Schaffner, “Becoming Neighbors with Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right? The Impact of Refugee Inflows at the Small-Scale Level,” Ruhr Economic Papers no. 947 (Essen: RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, 2022), https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/947.html.

[86] “У Києві загинула 21-річна дівчина, Зеленський заявив про спроби схилити Україну до капітуляції: новини ранку 19 жовтня” [21-Year-Old Woman Killed in Kyiv, Zelensky Speaks of Attempts to Push Ukraine toward Capitulation: Morning News, October 19], Suspilne, October 19, 2026, https://suspilne.media/1430839-u-kievi-zaginula-21-ricna-divcina-zelenskij-zaaviv-pro-sprobi-shiliti-ukrainu-do-kapitulacii-novini-ranku-19-zovtna/; Méheut, “Trump Is Pushing Ukraine to Surrender.”

[87] “Трамп скасував санкції проти Росії та розлютив Конгрес: у США спалахнув скандал” [Trump Cancels Sanctions against Russia and Angers Congress: A Scandal Erupts in the US], TSN, October 18, 2026, https://tsn.ua/svit/tramp-skasuvav-sanktsiyi-proty-rosiyi-ta-rozliutyv-konhres-u-ssha-spalakhnuv-skandal-3192559.html.

[88] Ukrinform, “Зеленський відреагував на рішення Трампа: Це лише перший крок, зняття санкцій продовжиться” [Zelensky Reacts to Trump’s Decision: This Is Only the First Step, the Lifting of Sanctions Will Continue], October 17, 2026, via UKR.net, https://www.ukr.net/news/details/politics/120031669.html; “Зеленський: зняття санкцій проти РФ буде продовжуватись, дизельна угода — це лише перший крок” [Zelensky: Lifting of Sanctions on Russia Will Continue, the Diesel Deal Is Only the First Step], Suspilne, October 17, 2026, https://suspilne.media/1430105-zelenskij-znatta-sankcij-proti-rf-bude-prodovzuvatis-dizelna-ugoda-ce-lise-persij-krok/.

[89] Alec Russell and Ben Hall, “Zelenskyy on Trump’s Relationship with Putin,” video interview, *Financial Times*, October 15, 2026, https://www.ft.com/video/ca7652de-937e-4ba3-89a4-17dd427cc919.

[90] Egor Alimov, “Дмитриев увидел исторический момент в заморозке Трампом «адских санкций»” [Dmitriev Sees a Historic Moment in Trump’s Freezing of the “Hellish Sanctions”], RBC, October 17, 2026, https://www.rbc.ru/politics/17/10/2026/6ad3020214f7464331e86a94; Agence France-Presse, “Russia Hails Trump Waiving Sanctions as ‘Historic,’” *Barron’s*, October 17, 2026, https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-hails-trump-waiving-sanctions-as-historic-1704d5f7.

[91] “Diesel Deal Concerns Only Russia, US, Whatever Zelensky Could Say — Lavrov,” TASS, October 18, 2026, https://tass.com/economy/2203845.

[92] Kanyshai Butun, “Kremlin Says Trump Wants Zelenskyy Replaced over Lack of Will to End War,” Anadolu Agency, October 12, 2026 (reporting Dmitry Peskov’s interview with RIA Novosti), https://www.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/kremlin-says-trump-wants-zelenskyy-replaced-over-lack-of-will-to-end-war/4085969; “Kremlin ‘Fully Agrees’ with Trump’s Zelensky Criticism,” *Moscow Times*, October 16, 2026, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/16/kremlin-fully-agrees-with-trumps-zelensky-criticism-a94000.

[93] “From Russian Oil to Starlink: How the US Is Redrawing Its Ukraine Playbook,” RT, October 16, 2026 (article labeled by RT as AI-generated), https://rt-english.com/news/647287-russian-oil-starlink-trump-pressure-zelensky/.

[94] “Russian Diesel to Enter US Market 15-20 Days after Signing Contracts,” TASS, October 18, 2026, https://tass.com/economy/2203689; “Новак объяснил, почему Россия «пошла навстречу» США по поставкам дизеля” [Novak Explains Why Russia “Accommodated” the US on Diesel Supplies], RBC, October 18, 2026, https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/6ad2902d4b01699d737a2f4d; “Russian, US Companies Discuss Diesel Supply Contracts — Novak,” TASS, October 14, 2026, https://tass.com/economy/2202093.

[95] John T. Psaropoulos, “Ukraine Advances in Occupied Donetsk as Trump Hands Putin Diesel Deal,” Al Jazeera, October 16, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/16/ukraine-repels-russian-forces-as-us-support-wavers-energy-strikes-escalate.

[96] ISW, “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2026.”

[97] Psaropoulos, “Ukraine Advances in Occupied Donetsk”; Lister and Tarasova-Markina, “Trump Slams Zelensky”; Méheut, “Trump Is Pushing Ukraine to Surrender.”

[98] Reuters, “Rubio Says Trump to Take Up to 60 Days.”

[99] “US-Sanktionen gegen Russland: Republikaner kritisieren Trump wegen Aussetzung von Russlandsanktionen” [Republicans Criticize Trump over Suspension of Russia Sanctions], *Die Zeit*, October 18, 2026, https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2026-10/russland-sanktionen-usa-donald-trump-kongress-wladimir-putin; Associated Press, “Trump’s Decision to Waive Russian Sanctions Outrages Congress”; Sanger, “Trump Defends Plans to Ease Russia Sanctions.”

[100] Tom Nichols, “America Is Now an Ally of Russia,” *The Atlantic*, October 18, 2026, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/10/america-now-ally-russia/689066/.

[101] Associated Press, “US Ties with Ukraine Hit New Low as Trump Slights Zelenskyy and Eases Up on Russia,” AP News, October 19, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/trump-zelenskyy-putin-ukraine-russia-war-5ff9a53edf6d0f338f40709af6dc9c11.

[102] Associated Press, “Putin Agrees to Resume Trilateral Talks.”

[103] “Moscow Did Not Contact Zelensky,” TASS; Bashchenko, “Russia Rejects Energy Ceasefire.”

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